India is a land of frequent — or some would even say constant — elections. With nearly thirty-odd states (28) having their own state assembly elections every five years, which is every sixty months, there would theoretically be an election every two months. Of course, many state assembly elections are bunched together, and some states are small. Still, we do have plenty of state assembly elections happening every year. One can safely argue that our politicians and media are in election mode for at least half the time.
All this does become too much. There is also a case to be made for “one nation, one election” or a variant thereof (perhaps “one nation, two/three elections” could work better). However, despite the plethora of state elections going around, there are only a few times every couple of years that we get a big, juicy election that everyone has their eyes on. We have one this time — the Bihar Assembly Elections of 2025.
This election has all three essential ingredients of what makes a great, big, juicy election. These are:
a) the state has to be of a substantial size,
b) there should be no anticipated clear winners, at least at the campaign stage, and
c) the election dynamics of the state should represent a microcosm of a broader India — meaning the results are an indicator of the national mood and have greater national implications than just determining who will form the government in that state.
Bihar has all these three ingredients — and how! It is probably the second or third most populous state in India, only behind Uttar Pradesh and perhaps Maharashtra, with an estimated population of around 130 million. The population of Bihar alone would make it roughly the 11th or 12th most populated nation in the world, sitting alongside Mexico and Japan. Little wonder then that the most watched assembly elections are those of UP, Maharashtra, and Bihar. We recently had the Maharashtra elections, and the UP elections are not due until 2027. Hence, for now, Bihar is the biggest one we have.
The second factor — the absence of a clear frontrunner — applies to Bihar as well. Opinion polls in India are rarely accurate, and this time they are all over the place anyway. Some experts firmly suggest an anti-incumbency wave, thereby favoring the Mahagathbandhan (MGB). Others say there is still massive confidence in the Modi–BJP–Nitish–NDA–JDU brand combination. Adding to the complexity of predicting results is Prashant Kishor’s new Jan Swaraj Party, which is expected to have some impact, even if only a few percentage points in vote share.
Bihar election results, in particular, have been extremely sensitive to small vote-share movements. The 2020 elections were particularly close, with the NDA and MGB both at 37.9% vote share. The NDA won 125 seats (majority mark 122) and the MGB won 110. These seats can fluctuate heavily with even a couple of percentage points’ shift in vote share. With so many moving parts and new parties like the JSP, here’s the best prediction for Bihar as of today — nobody knows what will happen. However, that’s also what makes the election so fascinating.
The final factor — the election dynamics of the state representing a microcosm of the national dynamic — also fits Bihar well. For instance, a state like Tamil Nadu is large (sixth by population) and often doesn’t have a clear predicted winner. However, Tamil Nadu’s state politics operates on its own rhythm and doesn’t carry over nationally. Even the November 2024 Maharashtra election, although influenced by some national issues, was heavily affected by the Shiv Sena and NCP splits and all the confusion that came with them.
Bihar, on the other hand, deals with raw, unadulterated national-type issues: caste, religion, jobs, unemployment, law and order, and welfare schemes. There are all kinds of caste–religion–gender groupings that parties are trying to win over — much like in the rest of India. Whatever happens in Bihar, therefore, could be the most accurate “mood of the nation” data we’ll have for a while.
There is a caveat, though — the Muslim population in Bihar is higher, percentage-wise, than in the rest of India. Even the caste demographics differ somewhat compared to other states. Hence, the results may not fully carry over nationally. However, they will still indicate what people from various backgrounds and communities are thinking in Bihar — insights that can then be projected to many other parts of India as well.
Another factor, beyond those listed above, that makes the Bihar elections even bigger is that the NDA government at the Centre is supported by the JDU. Results in Bihar might have an impact on that alliance as well.
Little wonder then that all parties and their top leaders are pulling out all stops for the Bihar campaign. This isn’t just any state election — it is one that could have a significant impact on national politics as well.
We will only know the results on November 14, 2025, but here are the three basic possible outcomes:
Scenario One: The NDA wins big. In this case, the BJP can rest easy (though it never really does, and is always ready for the next electoral fight) that whatever it is doing is being appreciated by people, particularly in the Hindi belt. The JDU can also relax, knowing that its policies and choice of chief minister are welcomed by voters. The MGB, on the other hand, will have to reflect on what went wrong and whether they needed a better story.
Scenario Two: A close election. This scenario will, of course, open up the possibility of new formations, trading, and all sorts of drama. But it will also mean both sides can claim their own kind of victory — with no real change or lessons learned.
Scenario Three: A big MGB victory. This would have a major impact on the national story. The opposition would try to replicate the Bihar template in other states to see if similar gains can be made. The NDA, meanwhile, would head back to the war room to re-strategize, analyze what went wrong, and do what it takes to get back in the game — much like it did after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Either way, to some of us election addicts — the ones who would rather watch an election results day than a cricket final — the Bihar election is as good as they come. Stay tuned for November 14, 2025, for what promises to be a lot of fun coming out of those counting booths.