Most Indians, let’s face it, are neither aware of nor interested in Nepalese politics. Stereotypes about Nepal abound — that Nepalese people are gentle, peace-loving and happy, living in harmony, keeping to themselves, and generally being good friends with India. Despite open borders, there’s never really been any major conflict in our dealings with Nepal.
And yet, earlier this month, the youth of Nepal — particularly Gen Z — managed to topple their government. Protests began in early September after the government banned several social media platforms (Facebook, X/Twitter, WhatsApp, etc.) for failing to comply with new registration and regulation requirements. Take away social media from a generation that has grown up online and the results won’t be pretty. Little did the Nepalese government know that this protest would spiral out of control, leading to violent clashes and even an attack on parliament. The Prime Minister had to resign, an interim government has been installed, and fresh elections are due in March 2026.
The ban was only the trigger, or tipping point. Beneath it lay deeper frustrations over corruption, nepotism, economic stagnation, and the sense that political elites enjoyed privileges while ordinary citizens had few opportunities.
A few years earlier, in 2021, another neighbour, Sri Lanka, faced a similar meltdown. There, the trigger was a severe shortage of essentials — food, fuel and power — compounded by hyperinflation and a balance-of-payments crisis. As essentials disappeared, public patience collapsed. Protests erupted, and the Rajapaksa family was forced out of power. Again, the trigger exposed a broader anger over corruption, inflation, lack of opportunity, and elite privilege.
Bangladesh went through something comparable in 2024. In this case, the spark was the restoration of a 30% quota for descendants of freedom fighters from the 1971 war, or the people who helped liberate Bangladesh (sidenote: here we thought India liberated Bangladesh, but whatever). Since many of those families were already part of the ruling elite, the quota was widely seen as unfair — limiting job opportunities for ordinary young people. Protests escalated, and Sheikh Hasina’s government fell. She eventually fled the country. As in Sri Lanka and Nepal, the protests reflected deeper frustrations: corruption, inequality, inflation and unfairness.
See the pattern? Three neighbours, three triggers — social media, food, and jobs — all of which set off deeper grievances about misgovernance. And all this happened within just four years.
In every case, the spark was something that touched daily life. The wider frustration about corruption and inequality then drew people from across society into the streets. And while we don’t yet know how Nepal’s situation will unfold, history suggests such regime-toppling uprisings rarely produce immediate improvements. The country often remains politically messy. It may feel cathartic in the moment — a “victory of the people” — but the harder question always comes later: now what?
The best outcome, then, is to prevent things from reaching boiling point in the first place. That means avoiding:
a) the immediate trigger points that spark movements, and
b) long-term frustration that builds up in the population.
The good news is that India is at much lower risk of such a crisis, even though three of our neighbours have just gone through them. Our economy is larger, more diversified and deeper. While far from perfect, living standards are better than a few years ago for many people. Yes, there is frustration, but India also has multiple outlets: elections, social media, courts, and a still-functioning system of law and order. Essentials like food are unlikely to run short — in fact, millions get free rations through the public distribution system. Data is cheap, and so is food. You can still get vada pav, chole bhature, dosas, parathas, rice and dal at relatively affordable prices compared to incomes. It’s not such a bad life now, is it? Life isn’t perfect, but it isn’t bad either — and in many ways, it’s improving.
Hence, the chances of a Sri Lanka- or Nepal-style collapse at the national level are slim. What can happen, however, are local eruptions, given India’s immense diversity. For example, if the Northeast feels neglected, frustrations could build and get triggered by a local shortage or crisis.
It is always better to be prepared. India should ensure such situations don’t arise — not at the local level, and definitely not at the central level, however remote the possibility seems.
To do this, the government must constantly track three factors — call them the three “E”s:
Unstable neighbours are not good for India. Spillover effects — illegal immigration, crime, instability — often follow. As the bigger power in the region, India should support stability in neighbouring countries. But above all, we must learn from their mistakes to ensure a strong India never faces such a threat.