It’s terrible. There’s no other words, no debates, no explanations, no alternative narratives that really cut it. What happened in Pahalgam should not have happened. It’s not justified under any circumstances. Just look at the massive repercussions of the attack, which was carried out by five men with guns: Twenty-five people killed, twenty-five families destroyed forever. A regional economy barely hobbling back to life destroyed all over again. Tourism, investments, real estate, hospitality – each sector that was contributing to Kashmir’s recovering economy again falling in an abyss. Jobs lost. Livelihoods spoilt. Poverty rises. The nation overall too, engulfed in sorrow and loss, along with anger and frustration at a problem that never seems to go away. An Indian society that risks being fractured all over again on religious lines. A chance of a full-scale war between two nuclear powered nations, which puts not only the populations of the two countries at risk, but also the entire world.
All this, brought about by just five guys with guns, in one afternoon.
It that all it takes to destroy the peace of a nation and expose the world to the brink of a nuclear war? A few misguided and deranged youth who believe killing innocent Hindus at point blank range is doing some sort of service to their religion or nation or Kashmir?
Is it that easy to rattle a nation?
There is no easy answer. One could have their own viewpoints on how Kashmir should be handled, but one solution was to integrate the region more with India, improve the local economy, create opportunities for the youth. Then, hopefully with prospects of a better life the insurgency would go away. Indeed, that is exactly what was attempted since 2019, after Article 370 was revoked and several policies designed to make Kashmir more integrated with India were brought in. And despite recent events, one cannot deny that some progress was made. Tourist numbers in the region skyrocketed to 3.5mn in 2024, which is multiple times compared to the years before 2019. The easing of residency and land acquisition norms brought renewed interest in the real estate sector and attracted investments. The Pahalgam incident aside, the valley remained largely peaceful, even during the elections last year.
Of course, the process of rejuvenation of a region’s economy takes decades. It takes a long time before the benefits touch everyone. To expect all of Kashmir’s youth and locals will see massive benefits in five years and no longer be lured towards terrorism or radicalism is naïve. The Pahalgam attacks show us that. It doesn’t mean that the slow economic rejuvenation policy should be abandoned. No, that should continue and perhaps with more support – as the region would require that post Pahalgam.
The Pahalagam incident shows the perpetrators are desparate. They saw that Kashmir was healing, and the only way to stop that was to strike a blow and make the place bleed again.
This is also why we must be careful in our response to the incident. The perpetrators did it to invoke a certain reaction from us. We must be mindful to not take the bait.
First, we must understand the perpetrator. Despite multiple denials, there’s plenty of reasons to believe of Pakistan’s involvement in this, particularly the Pakistan Army. Reports suggest how the Pak Army is losing popularity amongst Pakistani people, and those are two separate entities. The Pak Army is behind the arrest of Imran Khan, who remains popular amongst Pakistani people for instance.
Second, we must understand the first instinct when something like this happens. Our immediate response is emotional. More than anything we want one thing – revenge! We want to “hit them hard!” We want them to feel the pain, and hope that it acts like a deterrent for them to not do it again.
However, what if the perpetrators’ intention is exactly that? What if they want that we get consumed by thoughts of revenge, we “hit them hard,” and thereby ignite and escalate the conflict between the two countries which until now seemed to be in a peaceful equilibrium. What if the Pak Army’s intention is just to ensure the Pak Army gets more relevant with the threat of war looming on the nation? What if they really want an Indian retaliation, which will be followed by Pak retaliation, and an Indian counter-retaliation, eventually spiraling into a full-fledged war. Wow, won’t that be the Pak Army’s dream come true? For what else is more important than the army in the case of all-out war?
This is why, no matter what our instinct suggests, we will serve India better by giving a reasoned response vs an emotional one. What’s a reasoned response? A reasoned response is far more blunt, far less entertaining (esp for TV channels), far less immediate and far more drawn out. We already lost 25 people, we don’t have to lose 300 or 3,000 more, which is what will inevitably happen if we do a couple of retaliatory rounds on either side. Not to mention we will fall into the Pak Army’s trap, give them profile and still won’t still solve the Kashmir problem at all.
A reasoned response on the other hand, will be a 360-degree, on-going, non-stop, 24X7 response, which involves going after Pakistan’s regime through all kinds of methods, including economic sanctions, foreign consensus building on how Pak Army currently threatens world peace, making Pakistan’s status akin to North Korea – nuclear powered, dangerous, isolated, openly supporting other insurgencies in Pakistan such as the Baloch movement, propaganda to further shift the narrative of Pakistani people against the army and digging in further on India’s own Hindu-Muslim unity, as well as Kashmir’s economic revival plan. Essentially, doing everything the Pakistani Army would not want you to do.
Should we thus, not retaliate at all? Does a reasoned response mean only a peaceful one? Not necessarily. India should do some targeted response, particularly at the Pak Army hubs, to emphasize the point that we are after the perpetrator and not Pakistani people in general. If we attack Pakistan in general, and Pakistani people feel attacked by us, they will automatically gravitate back towards Pak Army as their saviors. This is exactly what the Pak Army wants and hence, not something we want to do.
Revenge, although enormously emotionally satisfying in the moment, often doesn’t do the job. Emotions at the current horrible incident are justified. However, to keep Kashmir on the track of progress and to truly solve this problem, we need a 360-degree reasoned response, while making sure we do not take the bait and fall into the perpetrator Pak Army’s trap.